Andrew Asquith struck with an 8/1 winner last weekend and is back with two more bets at Epsom on Saturday.
Weekend View: Saturday June 1
1pt win Sirona in the 2.00 Epsom at 12/1 (Bet365, Coral, Unibet, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Grandlad in the 3.10 Epsom at 10/1 (William Hill)
There is an excellent card at Epsom on Saturday which is obviously headed by the Derby and the two movers in the market on Tuesday morning were Los Angeles and Ancient Wisdom with City of Troy drifting out to a general 11/4.
You can see why Ancient Wisdom is shortening after the rain as he clearly handles testing conditions well, while Los Angeles – who also has winning form on soft ground – was a little too big at a top price of 6/1 on Tuesday afternoon.
Los Angeles would be my pick for the Derby all things considered and would have been put up as a selection if there was still 5/1 or 6/1 available, though I’m inclined to leave him be at the revised prices of around 4/1 and concentrate on other opportunities on the card.
First up is SIRONA in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, who had a somewhat patchy record for Charlie Johnston last year, but made a very encouraging start for David Menuisier when beaten half a length in third in the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes over seven furlongs at Lingfield earlier this month.
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The bare form was up to scratch for the race, and Sirona shaped well on her first start for six months, very keen and failing to settle in the early stages, but produced to make her challenge around two furlongs out and staying on to finish never nearer than at the finish.
She had Stenton Glider in her sights but was unable to get past that rival and both of them were overhauled close home by the winner who came from much further back and displayed a smart turn of foot.
Given Sirona started 22/1 on that occasion suggests that connections were expecting her to come on for the run, and the freshness she showed in the early stages of that race should have been blown away now, while she will also be suited by this step back up in trip.
Furthermore, Sirona goes well on easy ground, so if the conditions remain on the slow side that should be in her favour, and she represents a trainer which usually likes his horses to improve throughout the season, so there will likely be more to come from her now.
Running Lion is a short price for this, which isn’t a surprise given she looked in control on her return in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket before seemingly getting tired in the final furlong, and will be much happier at this shorter trip on that evidence. However, whether she should be as short as 7/4 is debatable, and I’d much rather side with Sirona at 12/1 given I’m of the opinion she will take a big step forward and should also be much happier under these conditions and trip.
The five-furlong course at Epsom is generally regarded as the fastest in the world, virtually all downhill, so speed is at a premium, and GRANDLAD displayed plenty of it when winning at Goodwood on Saturday, another quick sprint track, so he looks very interesting in the 3YO “Dash” Handicap.
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He went very close to making a winning debut over six furlongs at Newcastle in March, taking a strong hold and nearly upsetting odds-on backers, beaten only a neck by one who had already shown plenty.
Grandlad ran to a similar level, again over six furlongs, on his next start at Kempton, but was keener than ideal from a wide draw, and he has found the drop to the minimum trip liberating since, channelling his energy much better under more forceful riding tactics when opening his account at Wolverhampton last month.
He proved he is just as effective on turf when following up on his handicap debut last weekend, proving his opening mark a very fair one, always travelling strongly at the head of affairs and displaying a good attitude to prevail in the closing stages, pulling clear of the remainder with the runner-up.
That was a useful performance and the form is backed up by a very good timefigure, so he looks well treated still from just 3lb higher, and that style of racing will be tailormade for this track. Obviously, the draw will have a big factor, so hopefully well get lucky in that regard, while he is also number 22 on the list, so he will need two to come out to guarantee a run, but we will get our money back if he is balloted out, so it is well worth getting him on side now at a double-figure price.
The ground is also a slight question mark, as it looks sure to be softer than the good to firm he won on at Goodwood, but the sprint course at Epsom is currently a little faster than the round course, so hopefully it won’t get too testing, and I’d expect him to be quite a bit shorter if lining up on Saturday.
Preview posted at 13320 BST on 28/05/2024
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